We are now in the final week of the 2022 fantasy football regular season. These decisions quite literally make or break our season. Let’s take a look at our RB start/sit Week 14 plays. Before setting your lineups, check out our complete Week 14 fantasy football PPR rankings.
Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (at LAC)
The Jeff Wilson revenge game did not go as planned. In fact, it didn’t really go at all. Facing his former team, Wilson carried the ball once for three yards and did not catch either of his two targets. It was quite the fall for a guy who looked like an every week RB2.
Last week’s disaster notwithstanding, fantasy managers shouldn’t abandon Wilson just yet. Head coach Mike McDaniel is just really smart. He was never going to run against the best run defense in the league. This week is a different story.
The Chargers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. Teams rush for a league-high 5.6 yards per carry against them. That puts Wilson back on the menu despite last week’s performance.
MORE: Week 14 Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendations
Raheem Mostert is also startable. He might even be the better option. It’s difficult to know what to make of this backfield after Wilson spent three weeks looking like the lead back only to cede the role back to Mostert last week.
Against the 49ers, Mostert played 61% of the snaps, his highest share since the Dolphins acquired Wilson. He actually ran more routes than Wilson despite neither catching a pass.
Regardless, I’m willing to start both of them in what could be the highest-scoring game of the weekend.
Latavius Murray, Denver Broncos (vs. KC)
Recommending starting anyone with the misfortune of having to play football alongside Russell Wilson is usually a poor idea. But in this most important of weeks, we have a bunch of injuries and six teams on bye. Suddenly, Latavius Murray looks decently appealing.
This is about two things: the matchup and the role. We’ll start with the matchup. The Chiefs are going to score points. That will force the Broncos to at least try and keep up.
While there’s no reason to bank on rational coaching, it is worth noting the Chiefs allow the 10th most fantasy points to running backs. It’s equally relevant that the Chiefs see a 23% target share against them to the running back position. This brings us to Murray’s role.
Even with Mike Boone returning from IR, Murray was the clear three-down back. He played 68% of the snaps and touched the ball 21 times. Murray wasn’t particularly efficient, totaling just 61 yards, but the volume is what we’re chasing here.
Murray ran 15 routes against just four for Boone and two for Marlon Mack. Even if the Broncos fall behind early, as expected, Murray is a decent bet to rack up a handful of receptions. Perhaps he gets lucky and falls into the end zone as well.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at SF)
Rachaad White bailed out the Bucs and fantasy managers with a game-winning touchdown reception on Monday night. If not for that touchdown, it would’ve been a disappointing night.
Leonard Fournette’s return relegated White to the wrong side of a timeshare. White did start, but Fournette played 60% of the snaps and was on the field for all but one snap in the Bucs’ two late fourth-quarter touchdown drives. It’s clear the Bucs still trust Fournette more, especially in big spots. White’s fumble didn’t help.
The 49ers are the single worst matchup for running backs. The Bucs will likely continue to be very pass-heavy. Both Fournette and White caught six passes against the Saints. That type of usage will keep their floors relatively high. The problem is Fournette is the team’s preferred option on passing downs.
MORE: Week 14 PPR Fantasy Football Rankings
Fournette ran 11 more routes than White. That gives him a higher floor and a higher ceiling. If White is limited to mostly rushing this week, he’s not going to get anywhere against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They allow just 3.2 yards per carry and 56.9 rushing yards per game.
This is a spot to take the lowers for Bucs’ running backs on Underdog Fantasy. If you have White, you probably cannot afford to bench him, but unless he racks up another 5+ receptions, it’s likely going to be a single-digit fantasy point outing from White.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions (vs. MIN)
It took about two months, but the Lions appear to be turning their backfield back over to D’Andre Swift. At this point, it’s abundantly clear Swift was not healthy for the majority of the season. Well, he looks healthy now, and the Lions agree.
Swift’s 51% snap share was his highest mark since Week 8. His 14 carries marked the first time he out-carried Jamaal Williams since Week 1.
This marginalization of Williams makes him even more touchdown-dependent than he’s been. And he’s already been the most touchdown-dependent running back in the league. Williams hasn’t so much as seen a target since Week 8, let alone caught a pass. Meanwhile, Swift has 14 targets in his past two games.
The matchup here is great in that this could be an extremely high-scoring affair. These teams combined for 52 points back in Week 3. In that game, Williams did total 107 yards and two touchdowns.
Of course, Williams could score this week. But he scored last week, and it wasn’t enough to be worth starting. He managed to remain below 10 fantasy points despite the touchdown. Without any receiving upside and with Swift’s increasing role, Williams can no longer be trusted in fantasy lineups.